crystal ball

Relax in southern comfort on the east bank of the Mississippi. You're just around the corner from Beale Street and Sun Records. Watch the ducks, throw back a few and tell us what's on your mind.
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JR.
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Re: crystal ball

Post by JR. »

mediatechnology wrote: Sun Jul 26, 2020 12:17 pm #11 JR's battle with squirrels is going to escalate in the coming weeks.
Still a month or more away, but yesterday a bird ate my first fig of the season despite bird netting. I ate the second one... good... I now have my dedicated squirrel cam monitor set up.
billshurv wrote: Mon Jul 27, 2020 3:53 am
mediatechnology wrote: Fri Jul 24, 2020 8:54 am #6 Gold will break through it's all-time September 2011 high within the next 5 trading days...
You won that. For a bonus point, when will it crash?
Unclear when it will crash (if ever) but rapid acceleration could continue for several months going into the Nov election, as dollar weakens and all this stimulus spending finally creates some inflation.

I recently increased my existing Gold position, and put on a new Silver position. Silver is rising faster than gold at the moment but still below historical ratios. (I am already up 5% in silver I bought late last week, but volatile markets giveth and taketh away... My original gold position was down 20% for years, now up >10% including the new add).

Interest rates are so low that it is hard to find decent fixed income investments. My last CD expired a couple weeks ago. I thought 2.5% was puny when I bought it years ago, today I can't get anything close to that much.

I have started trimming common stock positions, I am too old now to ride out any major market reversals (Like if Joe Biden wins). Only equity I increased in my recent trading is Berkshire Hathaway, they are still the smarted investors in any room. The stock market is always irrational but now there is a new tail (dumb money) wagging the market dog. A new generation of young investors are getting sucked into a stock market that only appears to go up (from their brief experience investing). Free trading and partial share transactions sucks them in even deeper. A classic stock market truism is to watch out when cab drivers and shoe shine boys are giving out stock tips. These inexperienced investors were buying up Hertz after they declared bankruptcy. The bankruptcy court approved Hertz issuing new equity to suck up all the market "hot money" interest, but calmer minds at FTC denied approval for the sure loser stock issue. Danger Will Robinson.

JR
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mediatechnology
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Re: crystal ball

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billshurv wrote: Mon Jul 27, 2020 3:53 am
mediatechnology wrote: Fri Jul 24, 2020 8:54 am #6 Gold will break through it's all-time September 2011 high within the next 5 trading days...
You won that. For a bonus point, when will it crash?
When globalism is defeated.
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mediatechnology
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Re: crystal ball

Post by mediatechnology »

#12 Plywood sales will be very strong this summer in America's inner cities.

#13 Ammunition will replace currency and coins used for change.
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JR.
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Re: crystal ball

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mediatechnology wrote: Sat Aug 15, 2020 1:34 pm #12 Plywood sales will be very strong this summer in America's inner cities.

#13 Ammunition will replace currency and coins used for change.
I just checked and my gold is up only 11% but new silver position is up 14% in only a couple weeks.

At the same time I bought some more Berkshire Hathaway because Warren Buffet is a smart investor. He has long been negative about investing in gold, but his recent SEC report shows he just bought stock in a gold miner (I think Barrick?). Great minds... yadda uadda...

==

Plywood is already in short supply because of homebuilding, and home improvement projects.

A friend of mine has been accumulating .22 cal ammunition for post apocalypse currency (his thesis is for hunting small game to eat). I lean toward 9MM but not for hunting. :lol:

JR
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JR.
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Re: crystal ball

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#14 I predict more people will move out of big cities and toward low tax states.

JR
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mediatechnology
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Re: crystal ball

Post by mediatechnology »

JR. wrote: Sat Aug 15, 2020 2:32 pm #14 I predict more people will move out of big cities and toward low tax states.

JR
I edited your post to add "#14" so we don't lose count.

The mass-migration from cities is very real based on what we're seeing with home sales in the Texas countryside.
Few are on the market without "contingent" or "pending" status for more than a week unless there's something seriously wrong with the house.
Realtors are reporting lots of buyers from the western blue shitholes of LAX, SFO, PDX and SEA.
Las Vegas (LAS) is also a popular source for Texas' incoming migrants due to high taxation.
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mediatechnology
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Re: crystal ball

Post by mediatechnology »

#15 I predict a huge increase in microphone windscreen sales.
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Re: crystal ball

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mediatechnology wrote: Sat Aug 15, 2020 1:34 pm #12 Plywood sales will be very strong this summer in America's inner cities.
Just posted today on ZH...

Got Wood? Lumber Prices Explode To Record Highs Amid "Supply Chain Screw Ups"

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/got ... -screw-ups
ZH Comment from "Dickweed Wang"

Something else may be going on when it comes to lumber as over 40 (probably many more than that) lumber mills and major warehouses have had serious fires since the fall of last year. Many of those fires were confirmed arson. This report from Yanasa Ama Ventures goes into some detail on that issue:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6PsZQqwnjg4
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Re: crystal ball

Post by AnalogJoe »

#16 quarantine will be over sometime in 2021
Bonum certamen certavi, cursum consumavi, fidem servavi.
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JR.
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Re: crystal ball

Post by JR. »

mediatechnology wrote: Sun Aug 16, 2020 2:46 pm
mediatechnology wrote: Sat Aug 15, 2020 1:34 pm #12 Plywood sales will be very strong this summer in America's inner cities.
Just posted today on ZH...

Got Wood? Lumber Prices Explode To Record Highs Amid "Supply Chain Screw Ups"

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/got ... -screw-ups
ZH Comment from "Dickweed Wang"

Something else may be going on when it comes to lumber as over 40 (probably many more than that) lumber mills and major warehouses have had serious fires since the fall of last year. Many of those fires were confirmed arson. This report from Yanasa Ama Ventures goes into some detail on that issue:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6PsZQqwnjg4
Maybe we need to number the new conspiracy theories too... :lol:

JR
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